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GAIA Host Collective
While you raise some good points what evidence do you have to make the following statement?
"They will send their domestic oil to where it earns the most money, and in general that will be the international market" Does this really depend on the relative purchasing power of the domestic consumer (per capita GDP?)
Secondly exports and imports of oil will also be detrmined by the quality of the oil. Eg In Australia the oil is very light despite declining production much is exported as it is too light to refine into heavier products. So oil such as Tapis and Arab Crude is imported to make gas, diesel and bitumen products.
Thirdly there are long term contracts. Not everything is sold on the spot market to the highest bidder. They may well have to honour these contracts first they may be domestic customers on the other hand they could be export cutomers.
Fourthly distance from markets affects where crude is sourced and where it is sold. For example there are places in the world that it does not make sense to ship oil half way around the world when a local source is close at hand. Consumers rely on more local producers as transport costs impact on input cost.