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- Saudi production down, consumption up, therefore exports way down
- China imports way up (15%?)
- world production flat
- no apparent shortage of oil on the market.
So there is, necessarily, major demand destruction going on. Where? Africa, India? Are the numbers emerging?Saudi Arabia has 20 million people, and GDP per head of c. $8,000.
US consumes 25 bl per person pa, I would bet the Saudis don't consume a quarter of that per person.
Figure 12 bl/per person/ per annum in Saudi: that equates to 240m bl pa or about 600,000 bl/day so less than 10% of total production.
The picture might be a bit more blurry than that because the domestic petrochemical industry soaks up crude (but exports refined products).
The Saudi birthrate is surely an anomaly in terms of classic income-per-capita demographics. It's a rather extreme illustration of the fact that demographic transition is mostly about the emancipation of women.
Income per capita has roughly fallen by 2/3rds since 1974 in Saudi Arabia (population has tripled, the real price of oil is no higher, there hasn't been enough other industry come in to fill the gap).
Saudi Arabia is also dependent on 'shadow water' (the term used to mean the water imported as part of food and other products)- -it doesn't have enough of its own resources.
The country is on the edge of very serious political and social trouble. The combination of widespread religious radicalism, a corrupt ruling class, the absence of any meaningful democracy, and poor prospects for the huge majority of the population under 21 is a lethal cocktail-- precisely what led to Algeria's civil war for example.
Right now, the current high price of oil (and high production) and the ruthlessness of the state security apparatus keeps the lid on. But there is no question the Royal Family has been shocked by the various terrorist attacks, and the incompetence of the Security Forces at defeating them. The security forces themselves are rumoured to be riddled with Islamicist sympathisers.
Whilst Abdhullah remains alive and in power, I don't expect change. He is seen as an honest man, and not personally corrupt. When some of his cousins get to power, the situation may be very different.
Osama bin Ladin may yet see the day when he is welcomed in his homeland as a hero.
India 2004 oil consumption 2,573,000 bpd
India 2005 oil consumption 2,485,000 bpd
One of the developing economies to show a fall in consuption last year. Note that France, Germany and Italy also show falls in crude oil consumption - in part related to de-indutrialisation, but maybe also through introduction of "alternatives"?
When you think about it, the easiest answers tend to be the same ones which make Germany the world's largest exporter - a tight focus on efficiency, a hard headed view of costs, and an awareness of the entire cycle of production, from acquiring raw materials to disposing of the waste at the end.
Oil costs Germany money, whereas wind turbines, for example, are planned as a future export product - and with a fully electric rail transport system, it is possible to substitute long haul trucking with rail, using renewable sources such as hydro, wind, solar - to a major extent, this is seen as an engineering problem, something Germans tend to feel very comfortable in dealing with. Not that Germans are blind believers in technology like Americans - merely that Germans believe technical problems can be solved with technical solutions - for example, if solar is only available during the day, then the freight train schedule will simply have to reflect that fact - in American eyes, that is not a solution, it is a failure.
And Germany has been quite rigorous in creating a bio-diesel framework for trucks and farm tractors. At this point, easily 50% of the long haul trucks seem to be using bio-diesel, from the smell they leave behind.
Germans have known that oil is a finite resource for more than a generation, which is one reason peak oil as handled here is not really a major theme, while consistent effots to conserve through higher efficiency and reduced use are seen as a necessity, not something which can be put off until the future.
But living between Frankfurt and Stuttgart, more or less along the flat and straight A5, which part of the direct route between Frankfurt Airport and the headquarters of Porsche and Mercedes, I expect this stretch of the autobahn to be one of the last unlimited speed routes in the world. Marketing is critical to selling overpriced vehicles.
Speaking very generally, trucks are only allowed 80 kph (50 mph) and up to maybe 90 kph is tolerated - 100kph is not. And those trucks are increasingly using bio-diesel.
This is not a defense of high speed driving - it is that simply the image of the autobahns is not really the same as the daily reality - most cars driven here are not even capable of 200 kph. But those that can go fast are often driven as fast as they can go - which certainly stands out for those not used to driving in such conditions.
After returning from the U.S., I would guess that the average speed of all traffic (not counting heavy rush hour) is at least as high as in Germany, mainly because of all the trucks doing 80 mph (130 kph).
I have noticed lately more trucks driving slower (55mph). I assume on orders to save fuel by the bosses.