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48 comments on Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group

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zceb90 on May 28, 2006 - 8:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
We used 1.7m boe/d for UK gas consumption in a paper prepared last year as submission by Depletion-Scotland to a Royal Society Edinburgh energy enquiry.  This figure was based on 2004 consumption and we had a DTI source reference at the time we wrote the paper but this reference no longer works (URL no longer valid).  On further checking on DTI site and downloading the 'Supply and consumption' report (ET 4.1) revised March 2006 annual UK gas demand for 2005 is stated as 1,100,732 GWh which converts to 714.6m boe or 1.96m boe/d.  On this basis potential import costs by 2014 are some 15% higher than stated in my earlier post.
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zceb90 on May 29, 2006 - 4:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Chris, do you have any info re contract price and escalation clauses for gas from Ormen Lange?  I would assume UK will simply have to pay prevailing world prices for gas imports from Norway, Qatar, Algeria etc.

It's interesting to note that not only did N Sea provide security of gas supplies but it did so at artificially low cost (I know as I was at many of the meetings negotiating gas prices and escalation clauses).  For years after inception in late 1960's contract prices for the major southern gas fields were low and the escalation clauses were not only extremely hard to trigger but only applied to a portion of the price when they were eventually activated (after the 1st 1970's oil shock).  The (then) Gas Council was the monopoly buyer and they, and consumers, were thus highly protected from any increases in world gas prices.

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MetaMeme on May 31, 2006 - 3:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Chris, do you have any info re contract price and escalation clauses for gas from Ormen Lange?  I would assume UK will simply have to pay prevailing world prices for gas imports from Norway, Qatar, Algeria etc.

I too would be interested to know about the current LNG & pipeline NG contracts status:

  • How many contracts are in place, and with whom?
  • What are their lifetimes?
  • What volumes have been agreed?
  • For Norway, how much flexibility do they have to cutback our supplies?

I have a feeling that there are a lot of "maybes" in all this!
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Chris Vernon on May 31, 2006 - 6:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't have any specific information about import contracts or Ormen Lange... however in the case of Ormen Lange I doubt there is enough infrastructure to export its full potential anywhere other than the UK so the logistics alone might offer the UK some degree of security from that source.
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