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6 comments on Deloitte on UK electricity to 2020

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goritsas on March 6, 2006 - 7:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Consumption, at least in the sort term, won't decline.  I think it's
safe to say there's enough latency in the system that in the absence
of prices at the meter being at least 3 times that now, demand will
increase steadily.  The rate might be price dampened, but not price
halted.

Only after a period of blackouts and brownouts, not necessarily
nationwide, but throughout the country reported over a time frame of
several months, will the pressure begin to build for conservation
measures.  As well as a demand for increased efficiency. (Although how
long will it take to turnover the entire UK stock of, say whitegoods,
replacing them with new and more efficient models is anyone's guess.)

Personally, I think this will come too late.  At such time as the need
for these measures becomes obvious, I think the situation will have
passed beyond the "low-hanging fruit" stage.  I believe this to be
true for three reasons.  First, UK electricity generation capacity is
set to drop by virtue of nuclear plant decommissioning.  Second, the
lead time between a transfer from gas to coal will prevent such fuel
changes from taking place until well after the "grace period" has
expired.  And, third, in Duncan's latest "Olduvai Theory"
(http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/sixteen-two/xvi-2-93.pdf), he
points out the grid itself is in dire straights.

    3) Permanent Blackouts Are Coming

    The third catch, according to the Olduvai Theory, is that sooner
    or later the power grids will go down and never come back up.4 The
    reasons are many.  The International Energy Agency (lEA, 2004)
    estimates that the cumulative worldwide energy investment funds
    required from 2003 to 2030 would be about $15.32 trillion (T, US
    2000 $) allocated as follows:

    1. Coal: $0.29T (1.9% of the total),
    2. Oil: $2.69T (17.6%),
    3. Gas: $2.69T (17.6%),
    4. Electricity: $9.66T (63.1%).

    Thus the lEA projects that the worldwide investment funds
    essential for electricity will be 3.7 times the amount needed for
    oil alone, and much greater than all of that required for oil,
    gas, and coal combined.

Now, I'm not truly bothered by the loss of generating capacity.  It
was bound to happen at some point.  But I don't think it will become
an issue with any sense of urgency until after unpleasant things
happen.  At that point we'll have a massive round of blame and
recrimination, and the poor and the fixed income elderly will be
freezing in darkness because the cost for electricity will have become
prohibitive; not to mention quite possibly rationing will have begun
taking place and "priority" users (read government, military,
multinational corporations) will be given the lions share in the name
of "national security."

jimbo
;-)

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MUDLOGGER on March 7, 2006 - 4:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The first step to ration cards and social control is a universal and compulsory ID Card system
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goritsas on March 7, 2006 - 6:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For most of us our "National Insurance Number" will do just fine.
Sure, at some later date an enhanced version of the NIN will become
the National ID Card (papers! make sure you use a totalitarian voice)
but in the beginning a rationing effort won't require such.

After all, if the Inland Revenue can find you, and they can, then you
might as well accept one of two outcomes: submission or rebellion.
Frankly, those are the only two options.  To pretend your vote counts
is to share the same delusional lifestyle as any heroin addict.  So,
what's it going to be, I ask myself?  Do I bite the bullet and say to
HM Government (whoever the hell "they" are) "fuck off," you're not my
feudal lord, or do I meekly accept the oppression and vow to fight the
system from "within?"

Why is it that as little as a century ago I could ramble about the
Earth and never be asked for my "papers?"  Sure, there were a few
places some uniformed official might do that, but by and large, I
could move from place to place with little or no obstruction.  Can you
imagine if our ancestors had been required to "papers!" as they made
their way from Africa to Europe to North America?

Moving on, sadly, the road ahead is clear, come to terms with at least
Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Overshoot and die off, or die off.  If
one can at least grab these by the horns, make the adjustments
necessary to ensure one's genes make it into the "new" gene pool, then
one's life will be a success.  For those who "can't see won't see,"
genes like those don't serve the species in any case.

jimbo
;-)

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MUDLOGGER on March 8, 2006 - 7:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, this brings up several 'brain teasers':

  1. ID Cards  NI numbers are theoretically all thats required, but it is believed that in excess of 1 million numbers above that actually required are sloshing around in the system.
  2. ID Cards with picture and bio-data and info can be easily read by a portable card reader.
Handy for apprehending those caught out after curfew...
3)UK Population Overshoot: Over the last 30 years, the phantom carrying capacity of Britain created by hydrocarbon wealth has probably enabled the UK to ramp up population to 65 million plus. Just as Saudi wealth has enabled Saudi Carrying Capacity to ramp up (but not for the
same reasons). So what will UK carrying capacity be be between 2020 -2050? If we get lucky, then the carrying capacity shall be nearer to 1900 levels. And that assumes that the prior source of energy (coal) can be matched.
4) Like many looking into a post peak future, I have teenage kids. So what do we suggest is a way through the bottle neck? What way of life, ways to earn a living be appropriate in the next decade, and note well: They see peers following the path of the last 30 years of conventional wisdom....
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