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30 comments on UK Energy Gap

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zceb90 on March 7, 2006 - 6:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Oil is not the real problem for the UK over the short to medium term as it can be readily shipped around the globe provided the 'price is right'.  In other words if UK plc is prepared to pay more than consumers elsewhere, (maybe  $200/bbl in hard currency), the oil can still be imported for the next couple of decades or so.

Gas is another story altogether and the first step of the import process (pipeline to Ormen Lange) is the easy (and secure) part.  What they don't seem to be telling us, however, is that with N Sea gas declines now running around 9% pa the 20% of UK gas demand to be supplied from Ormen Lange will only hold the situation for around 2-1/2  years, hence the push to develop LNG terminals at Milford Haven and Canvey Island.  The prospect of UK electricity generation becoming so dependent on gas imported from the area of the ME around Iran (and Qatar borders Iran) combined with imports by c5000km pipline from Siberia is the stuff of nightmares.  As Matt Simmons points out the 4 largest gas fields in that part of Russia are already in decline to which I'd add the comment that 'we will be last only to Ireland along the pipeline route which will run through numerous energy-hungry nations first'.

UK NS gas reserves were enough to supply domestic needs for many decades; instead we have squandered the reserves in barely 3 decades by the 'dash for gas' for electricity generation.  This short sighted policy might have helped meet our Kyoto committments but what of the future with world gas prices soaring and big question marks over security of supply?  A further discomfort factor is UK's lack of storage capacity (only around 11 days' storage even when Rough is working v c70 days in some EU nations who did not have indigenous supplies to rely on).  Despite the pressing need for this situation to be rectified local authorities continue to refuse planning consent for new storage facilities.  Do we really have to see electricity (and even gas) rota disconnections before we start to build the necessary storage?

Based on the research I've seen I'm afraid I cannot be optmistic about the UK's energy future - the lead times for alternatives to oil and gas are very long relative to the rapid decline rates we are now seeing.  Even if we did as Dr Robert Hirsch recommends and take mitigation steps on a 'Manhatten or Apollo project scale' we'd still likely have a problem even if planning restrictions were waived.

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writerman on March 8, 2006 - 5:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Interesting an very depressing reading. Thanks for reminding me of the phrase "Dash for Gas" my God that sounds chilling now doesn't it? The dash over the cliff for gas. Personally I would have kept the coal mines open. We could have found ways of "cleaning" the coal I'm sure. I always felt the mines conflict had a lot more to do with politics than economics. The miners/organised working-class just had to be crushed. Will we come to regret this?Maybe future historians writing about the period in the safety of their fortified monastaries will reivaluate the strike, with the miners cast in the role of heroes battling a powerful, ruthless and totally shortsighted government? Ballads will be sung in praise of their brave though doomed leader Arthur Scargill!
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